Pakistan’s Solar Boom Exposes a Fatal Flaw in Global Climate Models

 Zoom into the rooftops of Pakistan, and you'll find them gleaming with solar panels — a quiet revolution that’s rewriting the global energy narrative. In just a few years, Pakistan has become the sixth-largest solar market in the world, importing over 25 gigawatts of solar panels from China. What’s more impressive? It wasn’t the state driving this surge — it was ordinary Pakistanis, fed up with high electricity costs and an unreliable grid.

Electricity in Pakistan costs businesses 37% more than in India, primarily due to outdated contracts and expensive liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports. So, households and industries turned to solar, often recouping their investments in under two years. The result: a 50% increase in power supply, largely through decentralised, bottom-up adoption.

But this isn’t just a Pakistani story. It’s a wake-up call to global energy forecasters.

For years, energy models — from institutions like the International Energy Agency (IEA) — have underestimated solar’s growth and the true scale of energy demand in the Global South. These projections often fail to capture the ambitions of emerging middle classes in countries like Pakistan, where nearly 100 million people are climbing the economic ladder.

Take air-conditioning, for example. Only 11% of Pakistani households have it — yet with rising incomes and deadly heatwaves, that number is set to skyrocket. The models predict modest growth in electricity demand, but real-world heat, economic aspiration, and cheap solar panels say otherwise.

In 2024 alone, Pakistan is on track to install 16 gigawatts of solar, surprising even its own government. And while Europe debates emissions cuts, nations like Pakistan are simply finding ways to survive and thrive independently.

The core issue? Status quo bias in climate models. These models often assume that the world’s poorest will remain energy-poor and that the rich world’s emissions cuts are fixed. But reality is breaking those assumptions. The global middle class isn’t waiting for permission to modernise.

Energy demand is not static — it grows with aspiration. And if we want a livable climate, we must ensure that growth is powered by clean energy. That means solar panels not just for Copenhagen, but for Karachi, Lahore, and Skardu too.